Information about the MSEPS
|iEnKF: Short-term wind power forecasting with an inverted En semble Kalman Filter: paper or presentation|
|PMT-Filter: The Probabilistic Multi-Trend Filter: paper|
|Uncertainty in Wind Energy For ecasting: Basic research on the multi-scheme ensemble approach Thesis (PhD) Deptartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University College Cork, Ireland, DP2004 MÖHR, May 2004. [Fu ll text] (PDF 2.8MB)
Springer Book: Power Electronics and Power Systems
Eirgrid's Met Mast and Alternatives Study [Online Access]
This study report describes the methods used to verify the quality of meteorological data signals at wind farms in Ireland and analyses various types of alternative meteorological measurements that were found to be acceptable under varying conditions. There are several recommendations presented based on the findings of the study and discussed how these recommendations are being implemented by EirGrid.
Public ReportsIEA Wind Task 36:
2019 / 2021
IEA Wind Task 36 RECOMMENDED PRACTICES FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FORECASTING SOLUTIONS
Editors: Corinna Möhrlen and John Zack
Part 1: FORECAST SOLUTION SELECTION PROCESS
Part 2: DESIGNING AND EXECUTING FORECASTING BENCHMARKS AND TRIALS
Part 3: EVALUATION OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS
Part 4: METEOROLOGICAL AND POWER DATA REQUIREMENTS FOR REAL-TIME FORECASTING APPLICATIONS (coming soon ... get draft version here)
Online Access: https://iea-wind.org/task-36/task-36-publications/recommended-practice/
Edition 1: Accepted and published, Sept. 2019
Edition 2: in Review until 15. Dec. 2021).
Edition 2 news: Inclusion of:
- Probabilistic Forecast Solution selection and evaluation in part 1,2 and 3
- Data communication and formats in part 1 with referral in part 2 and 3
- Application and Evaluation examples
Please send your feedback, question or suggestion to Corinna Möhrlen here
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), R. Bessa (INESC, Portugal), Understanding Uncertainty: the difficult move from a deterministic to a probabilistic world, Proc. 17th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plant, Stockholm, Sweden, October 17.-19, 2018.
Summary of RECOMMENDED PRACTICES FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF WIND POWER FORECASTING SOLUTIONS
Corinna Möhrlen, John Zack, Jeff Lerner, Aidan Tuohy, Jethro Browell, Jakob W. Messner, Craig Collier, Gregor Giebel
Part 1: FORECAST SOLUTION SELECTION PROCESS [Paper] (254kb)
Part 2&3: DESIGNING AND EXECUTING FORECASTING BENCHMARKS AND TRIALS AND EVALUATION OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS [Paper] (270kb)
[Presentation] (pdf 2.76MB)
Proc. 17th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plant, Stockholm, Sweden, October 17.-19, 2018.
2018 ESIG Forecasting Workshop "Applying Meteorology in Power System Planning and Operations!",St. Paul, Minnesota, June 19-21, 2018.
Use of Uncertainty Information in Grid Management: A High-Speed Shutdown Warning System in Ireland. Corinna Mohrlen, WEPROG [Presentation]
16th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Berlin/Germany, from 25 to 27 October 2017
Uncertainty Forecasting Practices for the Next Generation Power System
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), R. Bessa (INESC, Portugal), G. Giebel (DTU, Denmark), J. Jørgensen (WEPROG, Denmark),G. Giebel (DTU, Denmark)
[Paper] (pdf 695kB) [Presentation] (pdf 4.75MB)
Can Benchmarks and Trials Help Develop new Operational Tools for Balancing Wind Power?
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), C. Collier (DNV GL, USA), J. Zack (AWS Truepower, USA), J. Lerner (Vaisala, USA)
[Paper] (pdf 375kB) [Presentation] (pdf 738kB)
Energies 2017, 10
Bessa, R.J.; Möhrlen, C.; Fundel, V.; Siefert, M.; Browell, J.; Haglund El Gaidi, S.; Hodge, B.-M.; Cali, U.; Kariniotakis, G. Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry. Energies 2017, 10, 1402, doi:10.3390/en10091402
Abstract: http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/9/1402/ PDF Version: http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/9/1402/pdf
2017 UVIG Forecasting Workshop "Applying Meteorology in Power System Planning and Operations", Atlanta, 20-22 June 2017
Tutorial on Integration of Uncertainty Forecasts into Power System Operations
Applications and Value of Uncertainty Forecasts [Presentation] (PDF 1.77 Mbyte)
Session 1: Meteorology, Climate and the Electric Sector
Meteorological Data C ollection: Results from Eirgrid’s Met Mast and Alternatives Study [Presentation] (PDF 435 Kbyte)
Session 4: Benchmarking, Trials and Evaluation
IEA Wind Task 36 Status and Progres [Presentation] (PDF 514 Kbyte) ---> see also IEA Wind Task 36 Wind energy forecasting webpage -> Publications
Wind and Solar Forecasting Trials: Do’s and Don’ts, Part 1 Introduction to the IEA Wind Task 36 Guideline for Forecasting Trials ,T. Maupin, Vaisala [Presentation]
Wind and solar Forecasting Trials: do's and don'ts, Part 2:Introduction to the IEA Wind Task 36 Guideline for Forecasting Trials Evaluation of Forecasting Approaches and Selection, J. W. Zack, AWSTruepower [Presentation]
Why Do Forecast Trials Often Fail to Answer the Questions for which End-Users Need Answers: A Forecaster’s Point of View, C. Collier, DNV-GL [Presentation]
Session 7: Renewable Ener gy, Energy Trading, Market Evolution and the Role of Forecasting
Use of Probabilistic Forecasting Tools in Energy Trading [Presentation] (PDF 1005 Kbyte)
15th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Vienna, 15 - 17 November, 2016
Use of Forecast Uncertainties in the Power Sector: State-of-theArt of Business Practices
[Paper] (258kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 494kB)
TORQUE 2016: The Science of Making Torque from Wind Conference, München, 5-7 Oktober, 2016
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016)G Giebel, J Cline, H Frank, W Shaw, P Pinson, B-M Hodge, G Kariniotakis, J Madsen, and C Möhrlen, Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues. Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016) 032042, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/753/3/032042.
IEA Wind Task 36 Workshop, Barcelona, 9. Juni 2016
Causes of wind power forecast uncertainty and how we can learn to deal with it
RAVE - Grid Integration Project
Final report from WEPROG, Juni 2012 (only available in German). [Download Bericht] (pdf, 1.6MB).
The RAVE - Grid integration of offshore wind parks project description with a summary of the entire project and all contributions is available here and at the official RAVE homepage under Projects -> "Grid Integration".
2012 RAVE - Research at Alpha Ventus - Conference
Advanced on shortest-term predictability with Ensemble Kalman filtering
[Presentation] (PDF 2.3 Mbyte)
Public Report 1 (2010/01): Event Analysis of an extreme forecasting error case and discussion on optimisation of wind power integration. [Download Report] (pdf, 705kB).
Public Report 2 (2010/08): Best practises on the use of Ensemble Forecasts for wind power forecasting.
[Download Report] (pdf, 1.6MB).
Final Project Report (2012): DEWEPS - Development and Evaluation of new Wind forecastin g tools with an Ensemble Prediction System.
[Full Text] (pd f, 3.4Mb).
[E xecutive Summary] (pdf, 668kB).
Public Interim Report 1 (2007): Verification of WEPROG's MSEPS with data from the FINO1 platform.
[Download Report] (783kB).
Public Interim Report 2 (2008): Progress report on a variability forecast approach, ocean modelli ng, and sensitivity analysis of oceanographic variables for offshore forecasting.
[Download Report] (1.06 MB).
Final Project Report (2010): A High Resolution Ensemble for Horns Rev.
[Full Text] (2.1 MB) [Executive Summary] (73 KB)