Technical Reports

Information about the MSEPS

iEnKF: Short-term wind power forecasting with an inverted En semble Kalman Filter:  paper or presentation
PMT-Filter: The Probabilistic Multi-Trend Filter:  paper
Uncertainty in Wind Energy For ecasting: Basic research on the multi-scheme ensemble approach Thesis (PhD) Deptartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University College Cork, Ireland, DP2004 MÖHR, May 2004. [Fu ll text] (PDF 2.8MB)

Springer Book: Power Electronics and Power Systems 
Integration of Large-Scale Renewable Energy into Bulk Power Systems - From Planning to Operation, Editors: Du, Pengwei, Baldick, Ross, Tuohy, Aidan (Eds.)
Chapter 3: The Role of Ensemble Forecasting in Integrating Renewables into Power Systems: From Theory to Real-Time Applications, 79-134.  Corinna Möhrlen and Jess U. Jørgensen

Public Reports

IEA Wind Task 36:


16th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Berlin/Germany, from 25 to 27 October 2017
Uncertainty Forecasting Practices for the Next Generation Power System
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), R. Bessa (INESC, Portugal), G. Giebel (DTU, Denmark), J. Jørgensen (WEPROG, Denmark),G. Giebel (DTU, Denmark)
[Paper] (pdf 695kB)  [Presentation]  (pdf 4.75MB) 

Can Benchmarks and Trials Help Develop new Operational Tools for Balancing Wind Power?
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), C. Collier (DNV GL, USA), J. Zack (AWS Truepower, USA), J. Lerner (Vaisala, USA)
[Paper] (pdf 375kB)  [Presentation]  (pdf 738kB) 

Energies 2017, 10
Bessa, R.J.; Möhrlen, C.; Fundel, V.; Siefert, M.; Browell, J.; Haglund El Gaidi, S.; Hodge, B.-M.; Cali, U.; Kariniotakis, G. Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry. Energies 2017, 10, 1402, doi:10.3390/en10091402
Abstract: PDF Version:

2017 UVIG Forecasting Workshop "Applying Meteorology in Power System Planning and Operations", Atlanta, 20-22 June 2017

Tutorial on Integration of Uncertainty Forecasts into Power System Operations
Applications and Value of Uncertainty Forecasts  [Presentation] (PDF 1.77 Mbyte) 
Session 1: Meteorology, Climate and the Electric Sector
Meteorological Data C ollection: Results from Eirgrid’s Met Mast and Alternatives Study  [Presentation] (PDF 435 Kbyte)
Session 4: Benchmarking, Trials and Evaluation
IEA Wind Task 36 Status and Progres  [Presentation] (PDF 514 Kbyte) ---> see also IEA Wind Task 36 Wind energy forecasting webpage -> Publications
Wind and Solar Forecasting Trials: Do’s and Don’ts, Part 1 Introduction to the IEA Wind Task 36 Guideline for Forecasting Trials ,T. Maupin, Vaisala  [Presentation]
Wind and solar Forecasting Trials: do's and don'ts, Part 2:Introduction to the IEA Wind Task 36 Guideline for Forecasting Trials Evaluation of Forecasting Approaches and Selection,  J. W. Zack, AWSTruepower 
Why Do Forecast Trials Often Fail to Answer the Questions for which End-Users Need Answers: A Forecaster’s Point of View, C. Collier, DNV-GL   [Presentation]

Session 7: Renewable Ener gy, Energy Trading, Market Evolution and the Role of Forecasting
Use of Probabilistic Forecasting Tools in Energy Trading  [Presentation] (PDF 1005 Kbyte)


15th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms,
Vienna, 15 - 17 November, 2016

Use of Forecast Uncertainties in the Power Sector: State-of-the­Art of Business Practices
[Paper] (258kB) - [Presentation] (PDF 494kB)

TORQUE 2016: The Science of Making Torque from Wind Conference, München, 5-7 Oktober, 2016 

Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016)G Giebel, J Cline, H Frank, W Shaw, P Pinson, B-M Hodge, G Kariniotakis, J Madsen, and C Möhrlen, Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues. Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016) 032042, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/753/3/032042.

[Paper] (712kb)

IEA Wind Task 36 Workshop, Barcelona, 9. Juni 2016
Causes of wind power forecast uncertainty and how we can learn to deal with it
[Presentation] (3.1MB)

RAVE Project

Final report from WEPROG, Juni 2012 (only available in German). [Download Bericht] (pdf, 1.6MB).

2012  RAVE - Research at Alpha Ventus - Conference
Advanced on shortest-term predictability with Ensemble Kalman filtering
[Presentation] (PDF 2.3 Mbyte)

The official final project report of the project RAVE - Grid integration of offshore wind parks with a summary of the entire project and all contributions will be made available at the porject coordinator's Fraunhofer IWES Homepage or the official RAVE homepage.

DEWEPS Project:

Public Report 1 (2010/01): Event Analysis of an extreme forecasting error case and discussion on optimisation of wind power integration. [Download Report] (pdf, 705kB).

Public Report 2 (2010/08): Best practises on the use of Ensemble Forecasts for wind power forecasting.
[Download Report] (pdf, 1.6MB).

Final Project Report (2012): DEWEPS - Development and Evaluation of new Wind forecastin g tools with an Ensemble Prediction System.
[Full Text] (pd f, 3.4Mb).
[E xecutive Summary] (pdf, 668kB).

HREnsemble Project:

Public Interim Report 1 (2007): Verification of WEPROG's MSEPS with data from the FINO1 platform.
[Download Report] (783kB).

Public Interim Report 2 (2008): Progress report on a variability forecast approach, ocean modelli ng, and sensitivity analysis of oceanographic variables for offshore forecasting.
[Download Report] (1.06 MB).

Final Project Report (2010): A High Resolution Ensemble for Horns Rev.
[Full Text]  (2.1 MB)  [Executive Summary] (73 KB)